Episode overview
Michael Macfarlane opens with a proverb: society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they will never sit in. Nicolas de Santis, an early dot-com founder who co-founded Opodo and helped launch one of the first digital currencies, answers that humanity is doing both, with some parts of society building a more sustainable world while others pursue exploitation and short-termism. His work now centres on visioneering, which he defines as the ability to explore and create the future, drawing on imagination and even science fiction narratives. For families, he argues, it is a way to reinterpret mission and purpose beyond the limits of their own past.
De Santis calls the current AI boom a bubble, as in many technology cycles, while noting that AI has been taught in computer science for decades. He urges families to look at the world's great challenges, such as longevity, as the source of future industries, and to seek disruptive innovation. He then sets out his three planetary futures: maximum human potential through cooperative global governance, stagnation driven by nation-state thinking, and self-destruction through conflict. All three, he says, are happening today and all depend on technology. His prescription is a new level of global governance, which he distinguishes sharply from global government, and a federal idea the world could share.
The conversation ranges across Macfarlane's critique of the UK as a place to build a business, de Santis's view that capital is global and entrepreneurs must now use several locations, and his conviction that Asia is ahead in thinking about the future. He describes energy as being like oxygen and argues that complexity must be embraced if anything of value is to be built. His advice to a 25-year-old heir is simple: get your hands dirty and focus on value creation.
Key ideas
Visioneering as a strategic discipline
Nicolas de Santis defines visioneering as the ability of a person or organisation to explore and create the future, using imagination and science fiction narratives to conceive things that do not yet exist. He argues that thinking only about the past and present limits potential. In his experience, family strategy meetings rarely look far enough ahead, and visioneering helps a family reinterpret its mission and purpose for the future.
AI is a bubble within a longer cycle
Drawing on his dot-com experience, de Santis describes recurring cycles of technological development, with AI the latest. He points out that AI has been part of computer science courses for around 30 years. Asked directly whether the current boom is a bubble, he answers yes, explaining that bubbles form in many industries because everyone wants to make something out of the new opportunity.
Solve challenges or disrupt incumbents
De Santis offers families two lenses for new ventures. The first is to look at the challenges the world faces, such as longevity, because solving them creates large industries. The second is disruptive innovation, either improving something that exists or creating something entirely new. Opodo, he says, disrupted travel distribution by connecting directly to hotels, car hire firms and airlines, while the digital currency project created something without precedent.
Three planetary futures, all happening now
His Planetary Futures work maps three trajectories: maximum human potential, stagnation and self-destruction. De Santis stresses that all three are visible today and all use technology. Stagnation, in his description, is a world that invests more in war than in health. He suggests that families may own businesses still generating cash but no longer fit for purpose, and could direct future investment towards challenges they can help solve.
Global governance without global government
De Santis argues that the maximum-potential future requires cooperative global governance aimed at shared goals such as curing cancer and Alzheimer's and ending hunger. He notes that nation states are relatively recent, believes the UN is no longer fit for purpose and favours a federal model in which nations remain independent but contribute to a common vision. He is explicit that he does not want a global government.
Asia is thinking ahead
De Santis has no doubt that Asia is looking at the future differently and is ahead in that thinking. He argues that China has learned from the West and now applies those lessons better, helped by a different form of governance and decades of investment abroad. He links this to vision more broadly, noting that energy infrastructure requires decisions decades in advance and that energy has become as vital as oxygen.
Get your hands dirty
Asked what a 25-year-old from a wealthy family should do, de Santis says his answer might surprise. He would want to get his hands dirty, and sees a willingness to work hard as already positive, given how many wealthy heirs do not. He urges young people to draw on the values that built their family's success, to focus on value creation over capital accumulation, and to study the areas that interest them deeply.
In their words
So visioneering is also an attitude to the world. If you just think about the past and the present, you're limited in terms of what your potential is.
— Nicolas de Santis, Wealth Office
So for us, visioneering is a way for a family to reinterpret their mission and purpose towards the future.
— Nicolas de Santis, Wealth Office
So I believe that even if you say I'm thinking big, think much bigger. Because the dimension of what you want to build will then dictate the ambition of your challenge.
— Nicolas de Santis, Wealth Office
I don't say global government, I say global governance. We don't want a global government.
— Nicolas de Santis, Wealth Office
So to me the answer is get your hands dirty, go and study the areas that you're interested in and make a dent in the world.
— Nicolas de Santis, Wealth Office
Quotes are taken word for word from the episode transcript.
Questions this conversation answers
What is visioneering, according to Nicolas de Santis?
De Santis describes visioneering as the ability of a person or organisation to explore and create the future, using imagination and science fiction narratives to conceive things that do not yet exist and then build them with technology and processes. He calls it an attitude to the world and a critical component of strategy, particularly for families whose planning is limited by their past.
What are the three planetary futures discussed in the episode?
De Santis maps three trajectories: maximum human potential through cooperative global governance and ethical technology, human stagnation in which short-term crises and nation-state thinking prevail, and self-destruction through conflict and collapse. He argues that all three are happening simultaneously today and that technology is used in each. Which one dominates depends on whether humanity can agree a common vision.
What does de Santis advise young members of wealthy families to do?
He tells them to get their hands dirty. In his view a willingness to work is already a positive sign. He advises drawing on the values that built the family's success, focusing on value creation over capital accumulation, asking what can be improved, such as healthcare, with new technologies, and studying the areas that interest them in depth.